Phase 1
Strategic Shock
complete
JangIranIran Conflict Projections
JangIranIran Conflict Projections
A continuously updated intelligence system combining open-source reporting, signal extraction, and probabilistic modeling to produce structured real-time projections.A continuously updated computational intelligence engine that fuses large-scale open-source reporting, cross-source corroboration, event-level signal extraction, scenario-tree forecasting, and evidence-weighted probabilistic revision to generate structured forward projections in real time.
Operation Phases
1
2Counterforce Degradation
3
4
Operation Phases
Overall Phase Progress
Passing Threshold82%88%82%90%
Overall Phase Progress
Passing Threshold82%88%82%90%
Phase Breakdown
PastPast ProgressPresentCurrent ProgressThresholdThreshold
Air defenses
Threshold Met60%70%75%85%
Naval disruption
Passing Threshold~60%58%72%
Missile degradation
Passing Threshold70%80%68%81%
Command network
Approaching Threshold60%70%55%70%
Underground sites
Approaching Threshold40%50%31%46%
Drone degradation
Approaching Threshold60%70%49%63%
What Changed
May 09, 2026 UTC
Hold day through May 9
Hold dayMovement
Air defensesHeldMissile degradationHeldDrone degradationHeldCommand networkHeldNaval disruptionHeldUnderground sitesHeldPhase 2 totalHeld
May 9 holds. The day changes the diplomacy, escort, and market picture, but not the internal degradation board. Already above threshold and no fresh same-day internal degradation breakpoint was verified.
Sources
Reuters — Reuters reported May 8 sporadic clashes, U.S. strikes on two Iran-linked vessels, UAE missile/drone impacts, and May 9 relative calm while negotiations remained stuck.Reuters — Britain deployed a warship to the Middle East with an eye to a potential Hormuz security mission.Reuters — China's energy imports dropped in April amid the Iran war and fuel exports hit a decade low.
More details
Bucket notes
Air defenses (held) no change
Already above threshold and no fresh same-day internal degradation breakpoint was verified.
Command network (held) no change
No fresh same-day command-network degradation breakpoint was verified.
Drone degradation (held) no change
No fresh same-day drone-launch degradation breakpoint was verified.
Missile degradation (held) no change
No fresh same-day missile-launch degradation breakpoint was verified.
Naval disruption (held) no change
Maritime enforcement, transit, attacks, or shipping disruption did not establish a fresh same-day degradation breakpoint in Iranian naval military capability.
Underground sites (held) no change
No fresh same-day underground-site degradation breakpoint was verified.
Phase 2 total (held) no change
No tracked bucket added enough same-day internal degradation evidence to move the total.
Next phase trigger details
The regime shifts from sustained counter-strike toward residual pressure, proxies, and internal controlPartial
Signal: Carry-forward from the canonical 2026-03-17 partial date.
Underground launch and command nodes show a declining ability to regenerate attacksPartial
Signal: Carry-forward from the canonical 2026-03-14 partial date.
Drone attacks fall to sporadic harassment rather than coordinated wavesNot yet
Signal: The available evidence still did not establish a clean pattern in which drone attacks had fallen to mere sporadic harassment.
Maritime coercion loses strategic effectNot yet
Signal: Maritime coercion remained strategically significant through seizures, attacks, escort needs, or managed passage, so this trigger stays Not yet.
Multiple consecutive days with no meaningful missile salvosNot yet
Signal: The available evidence did not establish multiple consecutive days without meaningful missile or strike activity.
Next Phase Triggers
- Partial
The regime shifts from sustained counter-strike toward residual pressure, proxies, and internal control
Carry-forward from the canonical 2026-03-17 partial date. The day did not add a confirmed transition beyond Partial.
- Partial
Underground launch and command nodes show a declining ability to regenerate attacks
Carry-forward from the canonical 2026-03-14 partial date. The day did not add a confirmed regeneration-collapse signal.
- Not yet
Drone attacks fall to sporadic harassment rather than coordinated waves
The available evidence still did not establish a clean pattern in which drone attacks had fallen to mere sporadic harassment.
- Not yet
Maritime coercion loses strategic effect
Maritime coercion remained strategically significant through seizures, attacks, escort needs, or managed passage, so this trigger stays Not yet.
- Not yet
Multiple consecutive days with no meaningful missile salvos
The available evidence did not establish multiple consecutive days without meaningful missile or strike activity.
A Kevin Mehrabi Production
Contact: @KMehrabi